Drought / Flood and poverty in rice belt

Agriculture is the mainstay of the Indian economy. It accounts for 24% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and 15% of total exports. It provides livelihood to 65% of the population and direct employment to 58% of the workforce (DAC 2004). Rice is the single most important food grain; it occupies 36% of the gross cropped area and accounts for 42% of the total food-grain production in India. The eastern Indian states of Uttar Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, West Bengal, and Orissa are the major rice-growing areas, accounting for about half of the total rice production in the country. Much of this production is carried out under rain fed conditions. In India, drought is a perennial phenomenon, recurring every few years.

Irrespective of the probability estimates used, the expected proportionate loss is highest for Orissa(in 2004) and lowest for Chattisgarh. The total annual loss in rice production for the three states combined is 1.0 to 1.3 million tons, which is about 7–9% of the mean output. Using the average rough rice price of $125 per ton, the value of annual production loss estimated this way is $125 to $175 million. Rice is the main kharif-season crop in all three states.

“one year drought creates a 5 year problem” Sukraram Dhuru from Raipur’s Kumarkhan village

The loss in agricultural output is not the only consequence of drought. In rural areas where agricultural production is the major source of income and employment, a decrease in agricultural production will set off second-round effects through forward and backward linkages of agriculture with other sectors. The loss in household income can result in loss in consumption of the poor, whose consumption levels are already low. Farmers may cope with the loss by liquidating productive assets, pulling children out of school, migrating to distant places in search of employment, and going deeper into debt. The economic and social costs of all these consequences can indeed be enormous. Rain fed rice-growing areas in sub-humid tropics have low agricultural productivities and are the major “poverty hotspots.”

Hydrological drought is defined as the situation of depletion in surface and subsurface water resources due to a shortfall in precipitation.

Agricultural drought is said to occur when soil moisture is insufficient to meet crop water requirements, resulting in yield losses.

Agricultural and hydrological droughts are almost inevitable when meteorological drought occurs (Situation in which actual rainfall is significantly below the long-term average).

When drought occurs, the agricultural sector is usually the first to be affected. Even though the meteorological drought is over, the adverse economic impact of drought may persist for several years depending upon the nature of drought. In addition, people who were poor even during normal years are likely to be pushed deeper into poverty.

The above data is to understand the effect of drought:

1.      To understand the nature and magnitude of drought risk in drought-prone rice- growing areas,

2.      To estimate the economic costs of drought at the aggregate level,

3.    To estimate the economic costs of drought at the farm-household level, and analyze farmers’ drought-coping mechanisms,

4.      To analyze the impact of drought on poverty, and

5.    To suggest alternative options for technology and policy interventions for the effective management of drought.

This reflects in the low average incomes in the village, across all land categories. Many people have migrated elsewhere in this village in pursuit of alternate employment, as there is no opportunity in the village after heavy damage from the cyclone.

The economic costs of drought to rainfed rice farmers and to the nation as a whole are on the order of several hundred million dollars per year. Farmers use various coping mechanisms to deal with the consequences of drought. These coping mechanisms are, however, inadequate to prevent a reduction in income and consumption, especially of the poor and vulnerable groups. Drought in these three states alone can push an additional 13 million people below the poverty line. In addition, people who are poor even during normal years get pushed deeper into poverty during drought years. De- spite the considerable expenditures made to provide relief to drought-affected areas, to improve soil moisture availability through watershed programs, and to generally reduce vulnerability to drought through agricultural development programs, the overall economic and social costs of drought continue to remain high.

Drought is a major constraint to rice production in Asia, where at least 20% of the total rice area is drought prone. When rice is grown under rain fed conditions, both the area sown and the yield depend mainly on the available rainfall; any shortage in rains translates directly into production losses. Although most other natural disasters, such as floods and cyclones, result in visible and immediate loss of life and infrastructure, the effects of drought are creeping and long-lasting. It cripples the livelihoods of a large number of people, often trapping them in perpetual poverty. Even without the extremes of starvation and death, drought is a major economic and social burden that slows economic growth and makes escape from poverty enormously difficult.

A powerful example of drought’s impact on rice production is seen in the zigzag trend in rice yields in Orissa, one of the major drought-prone states of eastern India. Almost every upward movement in rice yields is followed by major down-swings, most of which are caused by drought. Orissa experiences drought once every three or four years and often in consecutive years. It is the severity and frequency of drought that largely account for the slow growth in rice production in Orissa over time, and similar patterns are seen in other drought-prone areas in eastern India.

Drought results in production loss not only of rice and other crops grown with rice, but also of subsequent non-rice crops that require the rice fields’ residual soil moisture. The value of production loss resulting from drought is indeed very large. In three states of eastern India—Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Orissa—where rain fed rice is grown widely, the average production loss of rice during drought years is estimated to be 5.4 million tons—over 30% of the annual production in non drought years. In severe drought years, the loss can rise to as high as 40–50% of normal production. When production losses of rice and non-rice crops are considered together with the costs farmers bear by adjusting their production system to try to cope with drought, the total annual economic loss in these three states alone is close to US$400 million. 

And, as opportunities for farm employment dry up in the face of drought, so too do the incomes of farm laborers who rely on rice production for their wages. It is estimated that in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Orissa, almost 13 million people who sit perilously just above the poverty line fall back below it due to drought-induced income loss. Others already below the poverty line in non-drought years are pushed further down.  If drought occurs in consecutive years, the situation is even worse. As farmers go into debt and liquidate their productive as-sets—such as bullocks, farm implements, and even land—they are trapped even deeper within a poverty from which escape becomes more and more difficult.

Analysis of rainfall data for India highlights the increase in the frequency of severe rainstorms over the last fifty years. The number of storms with more than 100 mm rainfall in a day is reported to have increased by 10 percent per decade (UNEP 2007).